Storm Christoph will bring multiple hazards to the UK this week, initially heavy rain.
A Yellow Warning of Heavy Rain has been issued for Dumfries and Galloway by the Met Office Between 00:00 (UTC) on Tue 19 Jan 2021 and 12:00 (UTC) on Wed 20 Jan 2021.
The forecast states – Persistent, and at times heavy rain, will develop across Northern Ireland, southern Scotland and the far north of England during Monday night. Rainfall accumulations of 20-30 mm are expected quite widely and some places, mostly over higher ground, could see 30-50 mm rain. This wet weather will clear eastwards early on Wednesday. Later on Tuesday rain will also turn to snow over hills, initially down to 300-400 m and then down to 100-200 m Tuesday evening and night. The most widespread snow will be over southern Scotland where accumulations of 2-5 cm are possible above 200-300 m and 5-10 cm may fall above 300-400 m.
Persistent heavy rain will lead to significant accumulations of rain which could lead to flooding in some areas. An Amber National Severe Weather Warning for rain has been issued for parts of northern, central and eastern England. Separate Yellow warnings for rain cover Northern Ireland, Wales, southern Scotland and the rest of England.
The Amber warning area includes Leeds, Manchester, Sheffield, Wakefield, Lincoln, Nottingham, Leicester and Peterborough and is valid from 0600 on Tuesday through to midday on Thursday. Within the Amber warning area rainfall accumulations could reach up to 200mm in parts of the southern Pennines and northern Peak District, 40-70mm could be seen more widely.
Chief Meteorologist Dan Suri, said “Following a cold spell where the main hazard was snow, our focus now turns to notably heavy rain moving across the UK this week. Some locations could see over 100mm of rain falling through the course just a couple of days with up to 200mm possible over higher ground. These amounts of rainfall along with snow melt present a real threat of flooding and people should keep a close eye on flood warnings from the Environment Agency and Natural Resources Wales.
“As the system moves away into the North Sea Wednesday night and Thursday morning there will be strong winds along the east coast for a time. Meanwhile, colder air coming southwards into the weather system brings the risk of further snow on the back edge of this system. Temperatures will gradually fall across the UK through the end of the week and into the weekend bringing a return to widespread overnight frosts.”
Although Friday will be drier with more sunshine, the delayed response of some river systems means there is still a risk of flooding in some areas.
Katharine Smith, Flood Duty Manager at the Environment Agency, said: “Much of the ground in parts of northern, central and eastern England is already saturated and the rainfall together with snowmelt is expected to bring significant river and surface water flooding and could cause damage to buildings in some communities.
“Flooding could continue to affect parts of central, eastern and northern England into Friday, with localised flooding of land and roads a possibility elsewhere across much of country on Wednesday and Thursday.
“Environment Agency teams are out on the ground clearing grills, screens and closing flood barriers. We urge people to keep away from swollen rivers and not to drive through flood water – it is often deeper than it looks and just 30cm of flowing water is enough to float your car.
“People should check their flood risk, sign up for free flood warnings and keep up to date with the latest situation at via Gov.uk or follow @EnvAgency on Twitter for the latest flood updates.”
Into the weekend the feed of cold air from the north west is likely continue, with further wintry showers into the northwest.
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